Development Aid and Export Resilience in Developing Countries: A Reference to Aid for Trade

The COVID-19 pandemic, like previous major crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, has had a severe negative impact on international trade flows. International institutions are now exploring ways to help their member states recover from the health crisis, and foster the resilience of their economies to future crises. As far as trade is concerned, institutions that deal primarily with trade matters are making effort to help their member states foster the resilience of their trade performance to future shocks. In this context, the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is the only international organization that deals with the global rules of trade between nations, has organized a series of events since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. It has now planned to hold in September 2021 the 2021 WTO Public Forum whose theme is "Trade Beyond COVID-19: Building Resilience". The present paper aims to contribute to this debate by examining the effect of development aid, i.e., the so-called official development aid, in particular its Aid for Trade (AfT) component, on export resilience. The resilience of exports refers to the capacity of countries' aggregate exports to resist to shocks, whether environmental or external shocks. The core argument of the analysis is that development aid would affect export resilience through its effect on productive capacities. The analysis covers 93 developing countries over the period 2002-2018. The findings indicate that total development aid flows, including both AfT flows and NonAfT flows exert a positive effect on export resilience. Among AfT components, AfT for productive capacities appears to exert a higher positive effect on export resilience than AfT for economic infrastructure and AfT for trade policy and regulation. In addition, development aid (whatever the aid variable considered) exerts the highest positive effect on export resilience in countries (such as Least developed countries - LDCs) that have the lowest level of productive capacities. These findings highlight the need for donor-countries to supply higher development aid flows, in particular AfT flows to countries such as LDCs that have low levels of productive capacities.