Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Agroclimatic Impact on Gastrointestinal Infection: A Mathematical Model

Version 1 : Received: 26 November 2020 / Approved: 30 November 2020 / Online: 30 November 2020 (14:15:33 CET)

How to cite: Ghosh, G.; Bandyopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, A. Agroclimatic Impact on Gastrointestinal Infection: A Mathematical Model. Preprints 2020, 2020110731 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202011.0731.v1). Ghosh, G.; Bandyopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, A. Agroclimatic Impact on Gastrointestinal Infection: A Mathematical Model. Preprints 2020, 2020110731 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202011.0731.v1).

Abstract

Identifying the correct dosage and time are key factors to successful implementation of anthelmintic. Comparing differential evolution of infection between anthelmintic treated animals against untreated ones, we present a mathematical model that first calibrates data collected and analyzed over an extended period of 10 years (2011-2019), and then predicts the dynamical evolution of gastrointestinal parasites in livestock, focusing specifically on Stronglye \& Coccidia oocysts, the two prime negative contributors to cattle health, measured using the standard Eggs-Per-Gram (EPG) index. The model incorporates information about all three critical regimes of infection - low infection regime ($< 50$ EPG), medium infection regime ($50-100$ EPG) and high infection regime ($>100$ EPG), including fatally large doses of infection ($> 500$), and probabilistically estimates the variation in animal weight due to infection propagation. A key success of our model is its ability to accurately predict the appropriate anthelmintic treatment times for cattle from a numerical solution of the model presented. The generic model can be applied to other agroclimatic conditions and can serve as a major diagnostic tool for anthelmintic strategizing.

Subject Areas

Anthelmintic; EPG; Strongyle; Coccidia; Epidemiology; ODE

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