Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Forecasting COVID 19 Confirmed Cases Using Machine Learning: the Case of America

Version 1 : Received: 9 September 2020 / Approved: 10 September 2020 / Online: 10 September 2020 (08:05:49 CEST)

How to cite: Jojoa, M.; Garcia-Zapirain, B. Forecasting COVID 19 Confirmed Cases Using Machine Learning: the Case of America. Preprints 2020, 2020090228 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0228.v1). Jojoa, M.; Garcia-Zapirain, B. Forecasting COVID 19 Confirmed Cases Using Machine Learning: the Case of America. Preprints 2020, 2020090228 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0228.v1).

Abstract

This paper presents a Multilayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine algorithms approach to predict the number of COVID19 infections in different countries of America. It intends to serve as a tool for decision-making and tackling the pandemic that the world is currently facing. The models were trained and tested using open data from the European Union repository where a time series of confirmed contagious cases was modeled until May 25, 2020. The hyperparameters as number of neurons per layer were set up using a tabu list algorithm. The countries selected to carry out the study were Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and the United States. The metrics used are Pearson's correlation coefficient (CP), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). For the testing stage we obtained the following results: Brazil, CP=0.65, MAE=2508 and MPE=17%; Chile, CP=0.64, MAE=504, MPE=16%; Colombia, CP=0.83, MAE=76, MPE=9%; Mexico, CP=0.77, MAE=231, MPE=9%; Peru, CP=0.76, MAE=686, MPE=18% and the United States of America, CP=0.93, MAE=799, MPE=4%. This resulted in powerful machine learning tools although it is necessary to use specific algorithms depending on the data and the stage of the country’s pandemic.

Subject Areas

multilayer perceptron; support vector machine; COVID19; SarsCov2; forecasting; machine learning; public health; pandemic

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