Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example

Version 1 : Received: 7 July 2020 / Approved: 9 July 2020 / Online: 9 July 2020 (12:08:34 CEST)

How to cite: Abusam, A. Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example. Preprints 2020, 2020070186 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202007.0186.v1). Abusam, A. Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example. Preprints 2020, 2020070186 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202007.0186.v1).

Abstract

The semi-logarithmic plot of the cumulative number of cases of epidemics resembles the response of a first-order systems for a step load. This similarity was utilized to develop a first order model that can be used for extracting information about the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. The developed model was validated using COVID-19 data of China. It was also heuristically fitted to other 13 countries. Obtained results indicated that the model can reliably forecasts the number of infected person, epidemic growth speed towards steady-state condition (process time constant, T), and time to reach steady-state condition (4T). The developed model will help public health authorities in developing more effective control strategies of epidemics.

Subject Areas

infectious diseases; epidemics; dynamical modeling; COVID-19; first-order systems

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