Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example
Version 1
: Received: 7 July 2020 / Approved: 9 July 2020 / Online: 9 July 2020 (12:08:34 CEST)
How to cite: Abusam, A. Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example. Preprints 2020, 2020070186. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0186.v1 Abusam, A. Modeling Epidemics as First-order Systems – COVID-19 Example. Preprints 2020, 2020070186. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0186.v1
Abstract
The semi-logarithmic plot of the cumulative number of cases of epidemics resembles the response of a first-order systems for a step load. This similarity was utilized to develop a first order model that can be used for extracting information about the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. The developed model was validated using COVID-19 data of China. It was also heuristically fitted to other 13 countries. Obtained results indicated that the model can reliably forecasts the number of infected person, epidemic growth speed towards steady-state condition (process time constant, T), and time to reach steady-state condition (4T). The developed model will help public health authorities in developing more effective control strategies of epidemics.
Keywords
infectious diseases; epidemics; dynamical modeling; COVID-19; first-order systems
Subject
Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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