Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Compartmental Epidemiological Model for the Dissemination of the COVID-19 Disease

Version 1 : Received: 1 June 2020 / Approved: 4 June 2020 / Online: 4 June 2020 (14:47:56 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 12 June 2020 / Approved: 12 June 2020 / Online: 12 June 2020 (12:14:28 CEST)

How to cite: Matsinos, E. A Compartmental Epidemiological Model for the Dissemination of the COVID-19 Disease. Preprints 2020, 2020060039 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0039.v1). Matsinos, E. A Compartmental Epidemiological Model for the Dissemination of the COVID-19 Disease. Preprints 2020, 2020060039 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0039.v1).

Abstract

A compartmental epidemiological model with seven groups is introduced herein, to account for the dissemination of diseases similar to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In its simplified version, the model contains ten parameters, four of which relate to characteristics of the virus, whereas another four are transition probabilities between the groups; the last two parameters enable the empirical modelling of the effective transmissibility, associated in this study with the cumulative number of fatalities due to the disease within one country. The application of the model to the fatality data (the main input herein) of five countries (to be specific, of those which had suffered most fatalities by April 30, 2020) enabled the extraction of an estimate for the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the COVID-19 disease: $R_0=4.91(34)$.

Subject Areas

Epidemiology; infectious disease; compartmental model; mathematical modelling and optimisation; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2

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