Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Unravelling the Social Network of COVID-19 in India from 30 January to 6 April 2020

Version 1 : Received: 22 May 2020 / Approved: 24 May 2020 / Online: 24 May 2020 (15:56:44 CEST)

How to cite: Azad, S.; Devi, S. Unravelling the Social Network of COVID-19 in India from 30 January to 6 April 2020. Preprints 2020, 2020050382 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0382.v1). Azad, S.; Devi, S. Unravelling the Social Network of COVID-19 in India from 30 January to 6 April 2020. Preprints 2020, 2020050382 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0382.v1).

Abstract

Social network analysis is an essential means to uncover and examine infectious contact relations between individuals. This paper aims to investigate the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from international to the national level and find a few super spreaders which played a central role in the transmission of disease in India. Our network metrics calculated from 30 January to 6 April 2020 revealed that the maximum numbers of connections were established from Dubai (degree-144) and UK (degree-64). These two countries played a crucial role in diffusing the disease in Indian states. The eigenvector centrality of Dubai is found to be the highest, and this marked it the most influential node. However, based on the modularity class, we found that the different clusters were formed across Indian states which demonstrated the forming of a multi-layered social network structure.A significant increase in the confirmed cases was reported during the first lockdown 1.0 (22 March 2020) primarily attributed to a gathering in Delhi Religious Conference (DRC) known as Tabliqui Jamaat. As of 6 April 2020, the overall structure of the network has encompassed local transmission, and it was significantly seen in the states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Karnataka. An important conclusion drawn from the presented social network reveals that the COVID-19 spread till 6 April was mainly due to the local transmission across Indian states. The timely quarantine of infected cases in DRC has not led it to spread at the level of community transmission.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; India; Indian states; International travels; Local transmission; Community transmission; Delhi religious conference

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