Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Age Adaptive Social Distancing: A Nonlinear Engineering Strategy to Contrast COVID-19 via Precision and Personalized Mitigation

Version 1 : Received: 1 April 2020 / Approved: 6 April 2020 / Online: 6 April 2020 (15:20:55 CEST)

How to cite: Cannistraci, C.V. Age Adaptive Social Distancing: A Nonlinear Engineering Strategy to Contrast COVID-19 via Precision and Personalized Mitigation. Preprints 2020, 2020040066 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0066.v1). Cannistraci, C.V. Age Adaptive Social Distancing: A Nonlinear Engineering Strategy to Contrast COVID-19 via Precision and Personalized Mitigation. Preprints 2020, 2020040066 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0066.v1).

Abstract

COVID-19 severity is heterogeneously distributed over age strata, but current mitigation strategies are homogeneously applied to all population. Social-distancing and stay-home are effective conservative approaches but lack economic sustainability on long term. Conversely, herd-immunity is a nonrestrictive strategy which can cost remarkable number of human lives and can melt the healthcare system down. Here I propose an Age Adaptive Social Distancing (AASD) engineering strategy to mitigate COVID-19 outbreak. AASD is based on the scientific evidence that the fatality rate grows nonlinearly with age, hence also the containing strategy should adapt nonlinearly. Essentially, AASD suggests that ‘silent spreaders’ (age 0-39) should avoid/minimize direct and indirect contacts with individuals in ‘dangerous zone’ (age 40+). The rationale is: 0-19 should follow parents strategy, healthy 20-39 (low fatality rate) might conduct screened life under active surveillance, to sustain economy and acquire rational immunity; 40-59 should respect social distancing (waiting a therapy); 60+ should stay at home (waiting a vaccine). This might save human lives, reduce healthcare demand and improve economic sustainability. The final take-home message is that future studies should design precision and personalized strategies for specific contagious diseases that integrate different social constrains, active surveillance and contact tracing.

Subject Areas

mitigation strategy; COVID-19; epidemics; health policy; public and global health; demographics; social distancing

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