Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Global Protectionism and Port Logistic Demand

Version 1 : Received: 26 December 2019 / Approved: 27 December 2019 / Online: 27 December 2019 (12:51:44 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Cho, J.; Hong, E.K.; Yoo, J.; Cheong, I. The Impact of Global Protectionism on Port Logistics Demand. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1444. Cho, J.; Hong, E.K.; Yoo, J.; Cheong, I. The Impact of Global Protectionism on Port Logistics Demand. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1444.

Journal reference: Sustainability 2020, 12, 1444
DOI: 10.3390/su12041444

Abstract

Various risks and uncertainties are strengthening the downside of the global economy. This paper aims to estimate the impact of US-China conflict and the WTO Appellate Body's shutdown on global logistics demand and to show the seriousness of the situation. Existing literature studies on protectionism or US-China trade conflict, with a focus on the effects of specific issues or impact on bilateral relations. No research has considered the adverse effects of the WTO Appellate Body's shutdown. This paper considers both US-China conflict and the installation of new NTBs in other countries due to weakened WTO function, and tries to suggest that the combination of tariffs and NTBs can severely reduce international trade and the demand for maritime logistics services, making this paper differs from previous studies. This paper suggests that a catastrophe could occur in global maritime logistics, based on quantitative estimates for the impact of global protectionism. Finally, underlining that the international trade order should not seriously be damaged, this paper proposes that countries around the world should seriously discuss this issue at the 12th WTO Trade Ministers' Meeting in Kazakhstan June 2020.

Subject Areas

US-China trade conflict; Port Cargo; WTO Appellate Body; NTBs

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