Working Paper Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Exploring the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Migration, Armed Conflict, Urbanization and Anthropogenic Change in Colombia

Version 1 : Received: 18 December 2019 / Approved: 20 December 2019 / Online: 20 December 2019 (06:51:56 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 25 March 2020 / Approved: 27 March 2020 / Online: 27 March 2020 (04:08:12 CET)

How to cite: Camargo, G.; Sampayo, A.M.; Peña Galindo, A.; Escobedo, F.J.; Carriazo, F.; Fejed-Rivadeneira, A. Exploring the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Migration, Armed Conflict, Urbanization and Anthropogenic Change in Colombia. Preprints 2019, 2019120266 Camargo, G.; Sampayo, A.M.; Peña Galindo, A.; Escobedo, F.J.; Carriazo, F.; Fejed-Rivadeneira, A. Exploring the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Migration, Armed Conflict, Urbanization and Anthropogenic Change in Colombia. Preprints 2019, 2019120266

Abstract

Anthropogenic change is associated with population growth, land use change, and changing economies. However, internal migration patterns and armed conflicts are also key drivers behind anthropogenic and demographic processes. To better understand this sort of change, we explore the spatial relationship between forced migration due to armed conflict and changing demographic factors in Colombia, a country which has a recent history of 7 million internal migrants. In addition, we use remote sensing, Google Earth Engine, as well as spatial statistical analyses of demographic data in order to measure anthropogenic change between 1984 and 2008; and we look into spatiotemporal relationships between both demographic and anthropogenic changes, which are caused by forced migration. We find, thus, that the latter is significantly and positively related to an increasing rural-urban kind of migration which originates in armed conflict, and results show that it is also negatively associated with interregional expulsion. Indeed, anthropogenic prints (term hereafter used to denote changes in nighttime satellite imagery) pertaining to different regions have had different sensitivities towards forced migration, and across different time periods. Finally we discuss how social and political phenomena such as Colombia’s armed conflict can have significant effects on the dynamics and motions of humans and territories in countries of the Global South.

Subject Areas

demographic growth; displacement; remote sensing; forced migration; urban sprawl; mobility

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 27 March 2020
Commenter: Andrés Peña
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Improvement of some sections (Background, Methods and Discussion)
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