Preprint Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (v1.1.0)

Version 1 : Received: 26 October 2018 / Approved: 26 October 2018 / Online: 26 October 2018 (10:44:28 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 15 November 2018 / Approved: 16 November 2018 / Online: 16 November 2018 (08:06:18 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Kollet, S.; Gasper, F.; Brdar, S.; Goergen, K.; Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J.; Keune, J.; Kurtz, W.; Küll, V.; Pappenberger, F.; Poll, S.; Trömel, S.; Shrestha, P.; Simmer, C.; Sulis, M. Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (v1.1.0). Water 2018, 10, 1697. Kollet, S.; Gasper, F.; Brdar, S.; Goergen, K.; Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J.; Keune, J.; Kurtz, W.; Küll, V.; Pappenberger, F.; Poll, S.; Trömel, S.; Shrestha, P.; Simmer, C.; Sulis, M. Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (v1.1.0). Water 2018, 10, 1697.

Journal reference: Water 2018, 10, 1697
DOI: 10.3390/w10111697

Abstract

Operational weather and also flood forecasting has been performed successfully for decades and is of great socioeconomic importance. Up to now, forecast products focus on atmospheric variables, such as precipitation, air temperature and, in hydrology, on river discharge. Considering the full terrestrial system from groundwater across the land surface into the atmosphere, a number of important hydrologic variables are missing especially with regard to the shallow and deeper subsurface (e.g. groundwater), which are gaining considerable attention in the context of global change. In this study, we propose a terrestrial monitoring/forecasting system using the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) that predicts all essential states and fluxes of the terrestrial hydrologic and energy cycles from groundwater into the atmosphere. Closure of the terrestrial cycles provides a physically consistent picture of the terrestrial system in TSMP. TSMP has been implemented over a regional domain over North Rhine-Westphalia and a continental domain over European in a real-time forecast/monitoring workflow. Applying a real-time forecasting/monitoring workflow over both domains, experimental forecasts are being produced with different lead times since the beginning of 2016. Real-time forecast/monitoring products encompass all compartments of the terrestrial system including additional hydrologic variables, such as plant available soil water, groundwater table depth, and groundwater recharge and storage.

Subject Areas

terrestrial modeling; real-time forecasting/monitoring; workflows

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