Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

The Life and Death of the Hiatus Consistently Explained

Version 1 : Received: 25 May 2018 / Approved: 25 May 2018 / Online: 25 May 2018 (14:49:51 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Rypdal, K. The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained. Climate 2018, 6, 64. Rypdal, K. The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained. Climate 2018, 6, 64.

Journal reference: Climate 2018, 6, 64
DOI: 10.3390/cli6030064

Abstract

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

Subject Areas

hiatus; attribution; volcanic forcing; solar forcing; anthropogenic forcing; AMO; ENSO; multiple regression; long-memory response

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