Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh

Version 1 : Received: 22 May 2018 / Approved: 22 May 2018 / Online: 22 May 2018 (12:54:33 CEST)

How to cite: Alamgir, M.S.; Furuya, J.; Kobayashi, S.; Binte, M.R..; Salam, M.A. Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh. Preprints 2018, 2018050306 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0306.v1). Alamgir, M.S.; Furuya, J.; Kobayashi, S.; Binte, M.R..; Salam, M.A. Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh. Preprints 2018, 2018050306 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0306.v1).

Abstract

Widespread poverty is the most serious threat and social problem that Bangladesh faces. Regional vulnerability to climate change threatens to escalate the magnitude of this poverty. It is essential that projections of poverty be made while bearing in mind the effects of climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the agrarian sub-national regional analysis of climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh under various climate change scenarios and its potential impact on poverty. This study is relevant to socio-economic research on climate change vulnerability and agriculture risk management and has the potential to contribute new insights to the complex interactions in household income and climate change risks to agricultural communities in Bangladesh and South Asia. The current study uses analysis of variance, cluster analysis, decomposition of variance and log-normal distribution to estimate the parameters of income variability that ascertain vulnerability levels and help us to understand the poverty levels that climate change could potentially incur. It is found that the income share in income sources revealed that income category shares across the various regions of Bangladesh are far from uniform. The variance decomposition of income showed that agricultural income in Mymensingh and Rangpur is the main cause of income difference. Moreover, large variance of agricultural income in the regions is induced by gross income from rice production. Additionally, constant reduction of rice yield due to climate change in Bangladesh is not such a severe problem for farmers, however, the extreme events like flood, flash flood, drought, sea level rise, and greenhouse gas emission based on RCPs could increase the poverty rates in Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Barisal, and Khulna regions that would be highly affected by unexpected yield loss due to extreme climatic events. Therefore, research and development of adaptation measures to climate change for regions where farmers are largely dependent on agricultural income is important.

Subject Areas

income distribution; cost distribution; vulnerable region; adaptation measures; Bangladesh

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