Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the Solomon Islands

Version 1 : Received: 8 May 2018 / Approved: 8 May 2018 / Online: 8 May 2018 (15:34:08 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Maru, E.; Shibata, T.; Ito, K. Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the Solomon Islands. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 227. Maru, E.; Shibata, T.; Ito, K. Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the Solomon Islands. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 227.

Journal reference: Atmosphere 2018, 9, 227
DOI: 10.3390/atmos9060227

Abstract

This paper examines the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Solomon Islands (SI) using the best track data from Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Brisbane and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi. The long-term trend analysis showed that the frequency of TCs has been decreasing in this region while average TC intensity becomes strong. Then, the datasets were classified according to the phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided by Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO has sufficiently influenced TC activity in the SI region with more genesis occurring in phases 6-8, in which the lower outgoing longwave radiation indicates enhanced convective activity. In contrast, TC genesis occurs less frequently in phases 1, 2, and 5. As for the influence of ENSO, more TCs are generated in El Nino period. The TC genesis locations during El Nino (La Nina) period were significantly displaced to the north (south) over SI region. TCs generated during El Nino condition tended to be strong. This paper also argues the modulation in terms of seasonal climatic variability of large-scale environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature, low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence.

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