Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Climate Change Impacts Assessment in Coastal Lagoons Using Available Modelling Tools

Version 1 : Received: 29 April 2018 / Approved: 1 May 2018 / Online: 1 May 2018 (11:22:55 CEST)

How to cite: Primo, B.; Achete, F.; Mahanama, S.; Thatcher, M.; Hemer, M.; Weesakui, S.; Duong, T. Climate Change Impacts Assessment in Coastal Lagoons Using Available Modelling Tools. Preprints 2018, 2018050007 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0007.v1). Primo, B.; Achete, F.; Mahanama, S.; Thatcher, M.; Hemer, M.; Weesakui, S.; Duong, T. Climate Change Impacts Assessment in Coastal Lagoons Using Available Modelling Tools. Preprints 2018, 2018050007 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0007.v1).

Abstract

Climate change such as sea level rise, change in temperature, precipitation, and storminess are expected to impact significantly coastal lagoons. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are uncertain. The objective of the research is to determine the climate change impacts on mixing and circulation at Songkhla lagoon, Thailand. Songkhla lagoon is the largest lagoonal water resource in Thailand and Southeast Asia. The lagoon is a combined freshwater and estuarine complex of high productivity which represents an extraordinary combination of environmental resources believed to be unique in the region. This work is part of a Climate Change impact assessment framework. It is the validation phase (step 5) of the framework applying a case study. Delft 3D was used to simulate CC scenarios in the climate downscaling models, part of the previous framework steps. These results were compared to the current conditions to determine the main changes in mixing and circulation in the coastal lagoon. Three indicators were applied to quantify the impacts: flushing time, salinity intrusion and stratification. The results suggest an increase in water velocities at the inlet in future scenarios and a decrease of flushing time. Salinity and stratification showed more complex changes in futures scenarios.

Subject Areas

water quality; hydrodynamics; flushing time; residence time; downscaling; stratification

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