Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources

Version 1 : Received: 30 June 2017 / Approved: 7 July 2017 / Online: 7 July 2017 (03:55:54 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Krakauer, N.Y.; Cohan, D.S. Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources. Resources 2017, 6, 29. Krakauer, N.Y.; Cohan, D.S. Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources. Resources 2017, 6, 29.

Journal reference: Resources 2017, 6, 29
DOI: 10.3390/resources6030029

Abstract

Solar and wind resources available for power generation are subject to variability due to meteorological factors. Here, we use a new global climate reanalysis product, Version 2 of the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), to quantify interannual variability of monthly-mean solar and wind resource from 1980 to 2016 at a resolution of about 0.5 degrees. We find an average coefficient of variation (CV) of 11% for monthly-mean solar radiation and 8% for windspeed. Mean CVs were about 25% greater over ocean than over land, and, for land areas, were greatest at high latitude. The correlation between solar and wind anomalies was near zero in the global mean, but markedly positive or negative in some regions. Both wind and solar variability were correlated with values of climate modes such as the Southern Oscillation Index and Arctic Oscillation, with correlations in the Northern Hemisphere generally stronger during winter. We conclude that reanalysis solar and wind fields could be helpful in assessing variability in power generation due to interannual fluctuations in the wind and solar resource. Skillful prediction of these fluctuations seems to be possible, particularly for certain regions and seasons, given persistence or predictability of climate modes with which these fluctuations are associated.

Subject Areas

renewable energy; solar; wind; interannual variability; seasonal forecasting; teleconnections

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