Preprint Article Version 1 This version not peer reviewed

Modelling crop pattern changes and water resources exploitation: a case study

Version 1 : Received: 29 June 2017 / Approved: 30 June 2017 / Online: 30 June 2017 (11:41:00 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 3 July 2017 / Approved: 3 July 2017 / Online: 3 July 2017 (15:13:44 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Zingaro, D.; Portoghese, I.; Giannoccaro, G. Modelling Crop Pattern Changes and Water Resources Exploitation: A Case Study. Water 2017, 9, 685. Zingaro, D.; Portoghese, I.; Giannoccaro, G. Modelling Crop Pattern Changes and Water Resources Exploitation: A Case Study. Water 2017, 9, 685.

Journal reference: Water 2017, 9, 685
DOI: 10.3390/w9090685

Abstract

Agriculture and farming worldwide are responsible for numerous environmental threats, including degradation of land and water resources depletion. Underlining the dynamic interaction between bio-physical and socio-economic drivers is the key towards a more sustainable land and water management. With regard to a highly developed agricultural area in southern Italy, multi-regression models were developed to interpret the observed inter-annual variability of cropped land. Main drivers related to Common Agricultural Policy support, product market prices, crop yield and irrigation water availability were investigated. The adopted models revealed the different weighs of each driver. The findings reported the role that direct payments played in supporting the extension of irrigated crops, such as processing tomato. Likewise, the models pointed to decoupled payment scheme as the most important driver of change in the crop pattern over the last years.

Subject Areas

land and water management; land use change modelling; water and irrigation policy; modelling of policy impact.

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