From Trade-Offs to Synergies: Governance- Dependent Interactions Between Education and the Sustainable Development Goals

Education is widely treated as an enabler of the 2030 Agenda, yet research on interactions between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) shows that such interactions are context-dependent. This study examines whether governance quality (SDG 16) determines whether educational expansion (SDG 4) generates synergies or trade-offs between social and environmental goals. Using a panel of up to 179 countries over 2000–2023, two-way fixed-effects interaction models, panel threshold regressions and a new classification of education-induced SDG interaction profiles, we find that the profile of education’s returns shifts along the governance gradient. In weakly governed countries, education is associated with lower extreme poverty and wider access to clean cooking fuels, but also with higher CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions, a lower renewable share and forest loss. Above governance thresholds located between the 65th and 82nd percentiles of the 2023 cross-country distribution, the low-carbon and natural-capital associations become favourable. In 2023, about 31% of the world’s population lived in countries where additional schooling implied such a social–environmental trade-off. Governance and income jointly drive this shift; governance-specific moderation is clearest for forests and production-based CO₂. Pursuing SDG 4 and SDG 16 together is therefore a precondition for education to accelerate sustainable development.