Connecting Canada’s Economic Heartland: A Cost–benefit Analysis of High-Speed Rail and the Potential Future of Economic Integration Across the Country

High-speed rail (HSR) could improve community connectivity and reshape intercity mobility in Canada. This study evaluates the proposed Québec City–Toronto HSR corridor through a scenario-based cost–benefit analysis of construction and operating costs, vehicle operating cost savings, travel-time savings, indicative carbon-reduction benefits, and accident reductions. Tourism spending and property-value appreciation are examined separately and excluded from societal benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) and net present values (NPVs). Using an 80-year operating horizon and a 3% discount rate, an immediate-operation diagnostic calculation yields conventional BCRs of 1.14–1.77 and positive NPVs of approximately $9.8–$92.9 billion under the retained ridership and travel-time assumptions. An illustrative phased appraisal incorporating ten years of construction and periodic capital renewals produces BCRs of 0.94–1.49 and NPVs of −$3.8 billion to $52.4 billion. Travel-time savings constitute the largest quantified benefit. Sensitivity tests show that lower demand, reduced time benefits, higher capital costs, and higher discount rates can substantially weaken economic performance, with several tests producing BCRs below unity. The findings indicate that positive net benefits depend on the assumptions used and do not hold across all tested scenarios. The study highlights the need for verified demand forecasts, consistent valuation inputs, and comprehensive lifecycle costing when assessing Canadian HSR investment.