Impact Analysis of Agricultural Insurance Development on Ecological Efficiency of Grain Production from a Carbon Emission Reduction Perspective

Ecological efficiency of grain production has attracted growing scholarly interest in recent decades. Agricultural insurance alleviates operational risks embedded in grain cultivation, which further promotes improvements in ecological efficiency. Using provincial panel data covering 31 provincial-level administrative regions of China over the period 2001–2021, this study adopts the super-efficiency SBM model to quantify and analyze agricultural insurance development as well as the ecological efficiency of grain production nationwide. The empirical results yield three core conclusions: (1) the advancement of agricultural insurance significantly raises grain production ecological efficiency. (2) Carbon emissions exert a significantly negative impact on ecological efficiency, demonstrating that carbon abatement policies are effective in boosting the green performance of grain production. (3) carbon emissions serve as a significant moderator in both Eastern and Western China. Specifically, the enforcement of carbon reduction policies amplifies the positive marginal effect of agricultural insurance on grain ecological efficiency. Drawing on the above empirical evidence, we propose three policy implications to improve grain production ecological efficiency: sustain the high-quality development of agricultural insurance, formulate differentiated eco-environmental regulations that accommodate regional heterogeneity, and expand fiscal subsidy programs for grain producers.