Submitted:
17 March 2026
Posted:
01 April 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
I. Introduction
- Research Gap
- 2.
- Research Objectives
- Develop a cloud-deployed self-service kiosk system incorporating an interactive analytics dashboard accessible to SME owners and managers.
- Design a structured demand simulation model that approximates realistic retail demand behavior using logistic growth, seasonality, and intraday distributions, enabling system evaluation without real transactional data.
- Implement and compare three forecasting models—SARIMA, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting Regressor—within the kiosk platform using a rolling backtesting evaluation protocol.
- Evaluate forecasting performance using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics and determine which model best suits short-term retail demand forecasting in the simulated environment.
- Demonstrate how Systems Analysis and Design (SAD) principles can guide the development of an integrated operational-analytical platform for SME retail.
- 3.
- Research Question
- 4.
- Hypotheses
- H1: Machine-learning ensemble models (XGBoost, Gradient Boosting) will achieve lower MAPE than SARIMA on the simulated retail dataset, because the simulation embeds nonlinear growth and multiplicative seasonal effects that challenge linear statistical assumptions.
- H2: The Gradient Boosting Regressor will achieve lower prediction error than XGBoost due to its regularized learning procedure and superior bias-variance balance on moderate-sized datasets.
II. Literature Review
- Prior kiosk studies focus on usability and hardware, not embedded analytics.
- Forecasting comparisons rarely occur within an end-to-end system serving SME operators.
- SME DSS literature highlights the need for integrated platforms but provides few concrete implementations.
III. Systems Analysis
- A.
- Problem Definition
- B.
- Requirement Analysis
- Users must place orders via web interface.
- System must store receipts and items.
- System must generate simulated historical data.
- System must compute daily/hourly aggregates.
- System must generate forecasts.
- System must visualize analytics interactively.
- Cloud deployable
- Scalable REST API
- Data consistency
- Response time < 1 second for analytics queries
- Reproducibility of simulation
- C.
- Use Case Diagram

IV. System Design
- A.
- Overall Architecture

- Backend: The backend is implemented in Django with a REST-style API using Django Ninja. Key apps include store (catalog, orders, receipts) and payments. The API exposes endpoints for product browsing, analytics aggregation, and forecasting (e.g., /api/store, /api/analytics, /api/forecast). The backend is configured for deployment on Railway with PostgreSQL via DATABASE_URL and WhiteNoise for static assets.
- Frontend: The frontend provides a touch-friendly kiosk ordering experience, plus a password-protected analytics route (/analytics) for administrative reporting. The deployed ordering UI invites users to “Tap anywhere to order,” while the analytics page requires an administrative PIN (1234).
- Database: The data model includes Category, Product, Order/OrderItem (operational ordering) and Receipt/ReceiptItem (analytics-grade transaction log). The Receipt tables support a source field (REAL vs SIMULATED) to isolate generated data for evaluation and safe reset.
- B.
- Database Design

- C.
- Sequence Diagram

V. Data Simulation Model
- A.
- Logistic Growth
- B.
- Multiplicative Demand Model
- C.
- Intraday Distribution
- D.
- Order Composition
VI. Forecasting Models
- A.
- SARIMA
- B.
- Machine Learning Regression
- Gradient Boosting Regressor
- XGBoost Regressor
- C.
- Evaluation Metrics
VII. Results
- A.
- Forecasting Performance Comparison
- B.
- Visual Forecast Behavior
- C.
- Model Stability and Residual Behavior
VIII. Discussion
IX. Limitations
- A.
- Synthetic Data
- B.
- Limited External Variables
- C.
- Short-Term Forecast Horizon
- D.
- Model Scope
X. Conclusion
- Transaction processing
- Structured data storage
- Interactive analytics dashboards
- SARIMA forecasting
- Machine learning–based predictive models
XI. Reproducibility and Deployment
XII. Author Information
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| Model | MAE ($) | RMSE ($) | MAPE (%) |
| SARIMA | 106.81 | 126.90 | 10.2 |
| XGBoost | 104.64 | 120.83 | 10.0 |
| Gradient Boosting (Sklearn) | 93.74 | 112.65 | 8.9 |
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