Submitted:
07 November 2024
Posted:
08 November 2024
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Abstract
Keywords:
Introduction
Methodology
2. Results and Analysis
2.1. Temperature
2.1.1. Characteristics of Annual Average Temperature Change
2.1.2. Characteristics of Seasonal Temperature Change
2.1.3. Analysis of Temperature Change Detection
- Spring temperatures before the 2000s fluctuated around the zero line, with most UF values above zero starting from 1997. By 2007, UF values exceeded the critical significance level of 0.01, and the UF and UB curves crossed around 2004, indicating an abrupt change in spring temperatures in 2004.
- Summer average temperature UF and UB curves have three intersection points, corresponding to UF values above zero, suggesting abrupt increases in summer temperatures. However, these intersections fall within the critical range, indicating that the changes are not significant (Figure 1B).
- Autumn average temperature UF and UB curves have four intersection points in 1998, 1999, 2003, and 2009, with corresponding UF values above zero, indicating abrupt increases in autumn temperatures. These intersection points also fall within the critical range, indicating non-significant changes. After 2013, UF values exceed the critical line, indicating a significant upward trend in autumn temperatures.
- Winter average temperature UF and UB curves intersected only once in 1991, with the corresponding UF value above zero, indicating an abrupt increase in winter temperatures. After 2013, UF values exceed the critical line, indicating a significant upward trend in winter temperatures.
| Temperature | R | (d· a-1) | Z | Year |
| Winter | 0.238 | 0.0303 | 0.30349** | 1991 |
| Spring | 0.3144 | 0.0301 | 0.39953** | 2004 |
| Summer | 0.0581 | 0.0088 | 0.1487179 | 2009 |
| Autumn | 0.1828 | 0.0181 | 0.298834** | 1998 |
| All Year | 0.4006 | 0.0208 | 0.436829** | 1999 |
| Sunshine | R | d· a-1 | Z | Year |
| Winter | 0.4 | -2.7506 | -0.45268** | 1994 |
| Spring | 0.0121 | -0.3804 | -.076923 | |
| Summer | 0.4429 | -3.0718 | -0.46946** | 1994 |
| Autumn | 0.4266 | -2.68 | -0.476923** | 1995 |
| All Year | 0.5582 | -8.8828 | -0.533799** | 1995 |
2.1.4. Spatial Distribution of Annual Average Temperature
2.2. Precipitation
2.2.1. Characteristics of Annual Precipitation
2.2.2. Characteristics of Seasonal Precipitation Variation
2.2.3. Analysis of Precipitation Change Detection
2.2.4. Spatial Distribution of Annual Average Precipitation
2.3. Sunshine
2.3.1. Characteristics of Annual Average Sunshine Hours
2.3.2. Analysis of Seasonal Sunshine Hours Variation Characteristics
- Spring: Sunshine hours increased from 1955 to 1962, reaching a peak in 1962 at 847.9 hours and a minimum in 1964 at 476.6 hours, a difference of 371.3 hours. There was a slight increase from 1965 to 1981, followed by a continuous decrease from 1982 to 2003, with an increase observed from 2018 to 2020.
- Summer: Sunshine hours were relatively high from 1955 to 1965, then rapidly decreased from 1966 to 1981, slightly increased from 1983 to 1986, and then sharply declined from 1987 to 2020.
- Autumn: Sunshine hours have been continuously decreasing.
- Winter: Sunshine hours have shown a consistent decline, with a rapid decrease observed from 1980 to 2001 and a slower decline from 2004 to 2019.
- Based on the intergenerational seasonal variation patterns:
- Spring: Sunshine hours increased from the 1950s to the 1980s, with relatively high sunshine hours in the 1980s.
- Summer and Winter: Relatively high sunshine hours were observed in the 1960s.
- Autumn: Relatively high sunshine hours were observed in the 1950s.
- From the 1990s to the 2000s, sunshine hours decreased across all seasons.
- In the 2010s, sunshine hours increased in spring and summer but continued to decrease in autumn and winter.
2.3.3. Analysis of Sunshine Hours Change Detection
- Before 1970 and during 1974-1979, UF values were less than 0, indicating a decreasing trend in sunshine hours.
- During 1970-1973 and 1980-1988, UF values were greater than 0, indicating an increasing trend in sunshine hours.
- After 1989, UF values were less than 0 again, showing a decreasing trend in sunshine hours, with a significant deviation beyond the 0.01 confidence level around 1999.
- Spring: UF values alternated around 0 from 1956 to 1965, with fluctuating sunshine hours. There were three intersections of UF and UB curves within the confidence interval, suggesting no significant change.
- Summer: Sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend from 1955 to 1958, 1960-1965, and 1967 (UF < 0), followed by an increasing trend in 1959, 1966, and 1968-1970 (UF > 0) (Figure 3B). After 1973, UF values decreased again (UF < 0), with a significant deviation beyond the 0.01 confidence level around 2002. The UF and UB curves intersected only once within the confidence interval in 1994, indicating a clear change point.
- Autumn: Sunshine hours increased from 1955 to 1959 (UF > 0), followed by a decreasing trend after 1960 (UF < 0), with a significant deviation beyond the 0.01 confidence level around 1999. The UF and UB curves intersected only once within the confidence interval in 1995, indicating a clear change point.
- Winter: The UF and UB curves intersected only once within the confidence interval in 1995, suggesting a clear change point.
2.3.4. Spatial Distribution of Sunshine
Conclusion
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| 1955-1960 | 1961-1970 | 1971-1980 | 1981-1990 | 1991-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 | |
| Winter | -0.4 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Spring | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 15.1 | 15.9 |
| Summer | 26.1 | 26.2 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.6 |
| Autumn | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
| Average Tem | 13.3 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 14.3 |
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