Version 1
: Received: 25 May 2024 / Approved: 25 May 2024 / Online: 27 May 2024 (10:09:12 CEST)
How to cite:
Hulscher, N.; Cook, M.; Stricker, R.; McCullough, P. A. Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington. Preprints2024, 2024051665. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1665.v1
Hulscher, N.; Cook, M.; Stricker, R.; McCullough, P. A. Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington. Preprints 2024, 2024051665. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1665.v1
Hulscher, N.; Cook, M.; Stricker, R.; McCullough, P. A. Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington. Preprints2024, 2024051665. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1665.v1
APA Style
Hulscher, N., Cook, M., Stricker, R., & McCullough, P. A. (2024). Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1665.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Hulscher, N., Raphael Stricker and Peter A. McCullough. 2024 "Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1665.v1
Abstract
Background: Since the onset of widespread COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, there have been concerns about serious cardiovascular adverse events, including myocarditis, myocardial infarction, and venous thromboembolisms, all of which can lead to cardiopulmonary arrest. This study aimed to estimate excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality in King County, WA, and investigate any association with COVID-19 vaccination rates. Methods: Data was obtained from the annual King County, WA, EMS reports, the U.S. Census Bureau, and The Tennessean COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker. An exploratory data analysis was performed. Excess deaths were calculated using the 2015-2020 cardiopulmonary arrest mortality trend line. The relationship between excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality and vaccination rates was analyzed using polynomial regression analysis. A quadratic regression model was used to generate expected population growth trends. The excess mortality model for King County was used to calculate yearly estimates for excess cardiopulmonary arrest fatalities in the USA. Results: Approximately 98% of the King County population received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 2023. Our analysis revealed a 25.7% increase in total cardiopulmonary arrests and a 25.4% increase in cardiopulmonary arrest mortality from 2020 to 2023 in King County, WA. Excess cardiopulmonary arrest deaths were estimated to have increased by 1,236% from 2020 to 2023, rising from 11 excess deaths (95% CI: -12, 34) in 2020 to 147 excess deaths (95% CI: 123, 170) in 2023. A quadratic increase in excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality was observed with higher COVID-19 vaccination rates. The general population of King County sharply declined by 0.94% (21,300) in 2021, deviating from the expected population size. Applying our model from these data to the entire United States yielded 49,240 excess fatal cardiopulmonary arrests from 2021-2023. Conclusions: We identified a very strong ecological and temporal association between excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality and the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which resulted in high vaccination rates. The biological plausibility of death from acute cardiac and pulmonary causes after COVID-19 vaccination has been previously demonstrated and is concerning given these real-world observations. Urgent further research is needed to determine if similar trends are observed in other regions with attention to risk mitigation for incident events and improved survival with resuscitation.
Medicine and Pharmacology, Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment:
There are some significant issues with this preprint. 1) Estimating the 2023 cardiopulmonary arrest rate is problematic because the excess deaths in the United States have declined in 2023. Given there are only 3 points used in the regression analysis, if the estimation is incorrect, it completely invalidates the analysis. 2) They do not account for COVID-19 deaths. In 2021, the Kings County data shows that 1020 out of 1276 excess deaths (80%) were related to COVID-19 infection. This is a significant confounder to consider in such an analysis. 3) Such an analysis cannot demonstrate causation, and causal language is used in this analysis. 4) There are extensive large population studies demonstrating no increase in cardiac arrests with COVID-19 vaccination that they do not cite. They should also address this literature if they present findings countering this body of evidence especially given their methods are based on correlation and do not directly assess the vaccination status of those that experienced cardiopulmonary arrest making this study much weaker than the other studies.
Commenter:
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Commenter:
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.