Răileanu, A.B.; Rusu, L.; Marcu, A.; Rusu, E. The Expected Dynamics for the Extreme Wind and Wave Conditions at the Mouths of the Danube River in Connection with the Navigation Hazards. Inventions2024, 9, 41.
Răileanu, A.B.; Rusu, L.; Marcu, A.; Rusu, E. The Expected Dynamics for the Extreme Wind and Wave Conditions at the Mouths of the Danube River in Connection with the Navigation Hazards. Inventions 2024, 9, 41.
Răileanu, A.B.; Rusu, L.; Marcu, A.; Rusu, E. The Expected Dynamics for the Extreme Wind and Wave Conditions at the Mouths of the Danube River in Connection with the Navigation Hazards. Inventions2024, 9, 41.
Răileanu, A.B.; Rusu, L.; Marcu, A.; Rusu, E. The Expected Dynamics for the Extreme Wind and Wave Conditions at the Mouths of the Danube River in Connection with the Navigation Hazards. Inventions 2024, 9, 41.
Abstract
The target area of the present study is the entrance to the Sulina channel in the Black Sea, the zero-kilometer of the Danube River. This represents the southern gate of the seventh Pan-European transport corridor and is subjected to high navigation traffic. The coastal environment at the Danube’s mouth is very often subjected to strong environmental conditions inducing high risks for navigation hazards. From this perspective, the objective of the present work is to provide a more comprehensive picture concerning the past and future expected dynamics of the environmental matrix in this area, including especially wind and wave conditions. An analysis of some in situ measurements performed at the zero kilometer of the Danube is first carried out for the 15 years 2009-2023. A second analysis is based on data provided by regional climate wind models. Two 30-year periods are considered, the recent past (1976-2005), when also comparisons with ERA5 reanalysis data were performed, and the near future (2041-2070), when two different models and three climate scenarios were considered. Finally, using as a forcing factor each of the wind fields before analyzed, simulations with a spectral wave model were carried out and the nearshore wave conditions were evaluated. The results show that both extreme wind and wave conditions are expected to be slightly enhanced in the future. Strong wind fields are characteristic in this area, with wind gusts exceeding on average with more than 70% the maximum hourly averaged wind speed. As regards the waves, due to the complex nearshore phenomena, considerable enhancements in terms of significant wave heights are induced. Furthermore, there is also a high risk of rogue wave’s occurrence.
Keywords
Sulina channel; Danube mouths; Black Sea; navigation hazards; historical data; climate scenarios; atmospheric models; wave model simulations
Subject
Engineering, Marine Engineering
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
