preprints.org > arts and humanities > history > doi: 10.20944/preprints202402.0100.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 1 February 2024 / Approved: 1 February 2024 / Online: 2 February 2024 (10:16:40 CET)

The WORLD3 world model, which served as the basis for The Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth (1972), was criticized, among other things, for not being able to simulate social interactions. In order to remedy this shortcoming, a research group led by Karl Deutsch at the Berlin Science Center developed a far more comprehensive model between 1979 and 1988 entitled GLOBUS, which was supposed to be able to include political developments in the calculation. This article aims to explain the hopes that were attached to the creation of a further world model and the means by which attempts were made to assert its results. To this end, three genealogical lines of the model -I. as part of the world modeling community, II. as part of quantitative international relations research, III. as part of Karl Deutsch's cybernetic-political science research- will be presented. The data basis and the functioning of GLOBUS are then described. Finally, section VI is devoted to the research group's efforts to make the model "effective".

Politics Simulations; world models; Karl W. Deutsch; Science Center Berlin; Club of Rome; Harold Guetzkow

Arts and Humanities, History

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