Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Predicting Road Traffic Collisions Using a Two-Layer Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithm

Version 1 : Received: 26 October 2023 / Approved: 27 October 2023 / Online: 27 October 2023 (10:09:15 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 4 November 2023 / Approved: 8 November 2023 / Online: 8 November 2023 (02:06:15 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Oyoo, J.O.; Wekesa, J.S.; Ogada, K.O. Predicting Road Traffic Collisions Using a Two-Layer Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithm. Appl. Syst. Innov. 2024, 7, 25. Oyoo, J.O.; Wekesa, J.S.; Ogada, K.O. Predicting Road Traffic Collisions Using a Two-Layer Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithm. Appl. Syst. Innov. 2024, 7, 25.

Abstract

Road collisions are among the world’s critical issues causing many casualties, deaths, and economic losses. To deal with this scenario, precise analysis is required. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) techniques to assess and predict road traffic collisions. An ensemble machine learning model with two layers was developed to analyze simulation data from the driving simulator. The first (base) layer integrates supervised learning techniques namely, k- Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) AdaBoost, Naive Bayes (NB), and Decision Trees (DT). The second layer predicts road collisions by combining the base layer outputs by employing the stacking ensemble method using logistic regression as a meta-classifier. The data for this study were imbalanced; therefore, we performed a SMOTE resampling strategy to handle the dataset imbalance. To simplify the model, the PSO algorithm was used to select the most important features in our dataset. The two-layer ensemble model proposed had the best outcomes with an accuracy of 88%, F1 score of 83%, and an AUC of 86% as compared with k-NN, DT, NB, and AdaBoost.

Keywords

Road collision traffic; Data imbalance; Machine Learning; Driving Simulation

Subject

Computer Science and Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 8 November 2023
Commenter: James Oyoo
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Abstract, Introduction, Discussion, Citations, and Conclusion.
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