Li, L.; Wu, H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies2023, 4, 654-670.
Li, L.; Wu, H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies 2023, 4, 654-670.
Li, L.; Wu, H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies2023, 4, 654-670.
Li, L.; Wu, H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies 2023, 4, 654-670.
Abstract
Cotton cultivation and sustaining its productivity is challenging in temperate arid regions around the globe. Exploring suitable cotton cultivation areas to improve productivity in such climatic regions is essential. Thus, this study explores the ecologically suitable areas of cotton cultivation using the Maxent model, having 375 distribution points of long-staple cotton and various factors, including 19 climatic factors, 2 terrain factors, and 6 soil factors in Xinjiang. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predicted results was greater than 0.9, indicating that the model's predictions had fairly high accuracy. However, the main environmental factors that affect cotton's growth are the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the hottest month, the precipitation in the driest season, and the monthly average temperature difference. Further, the temperature factors contribute 71%, while the contribution ratio of terrain and soil factors is only 22%. The research shows that the current planting area is consistent with the predicted area in many areas of the study. Still, some areas, such as the Turpan region, northwest of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, are supposed to be suitable for planting cotton, but it is not planted. The current potential distribution area of long-staple cotton is mainly located in Aksu Prefecture and the northern part of the Kashgar Prefecture region. The climatic prediction shows that the growing area of long-staple cotton may expand to southern Altay, central Aksu, and Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. This study will be helpful for cotton cultivation suitability areas in Xinjiang and other regions with similar environments.
Keywords
Xinjiang; Long-staple cotton; Maxent model; Potential distribution area; Distribution coordination
Subject
Biology and Life Sciences, Agricultural Science and Agronomy
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
