PreprintArticleVersion 1Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Species Distribution Model (SDM) Predicts the Spread of Invasive Nile Tilapia in the Sensitive Inland Water System of the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula Under Climate Change
Esmaeili, H.R.; Eslami Barzoki, Z. Climate Change May Impact Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758) Distribution in the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula through Range Contraction under Various Climate Scenarios. Fishes2023, 8, 481.
Esmaeili, H.R.; Eslami Barzoki, Z. Climate Change May Impact Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758) Distribution in the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula through Range Contraction under Various Climate Scenarios. Fishes 2023, 8, 481.
Esmaeili, H.R.; Eslami Barzoki, Z. Climate Change May Impact Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758) Distribution in the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula through Range Contraction under Various Climate Scenarios. Fishes2023, 8, 481.
Esmaeili, H.R.; Eslami Barzoki, Z. Climate Change May Impact Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758) Distribution in the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula through Range Contraction under Various Climate Scenarios. Fishes 2023, 8, 481.
Abstract
In the present study, we implemented species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the potential invasive distribution range of a cichlid fish, Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, in a very sensitive inland water system in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula where it is now established and spreading. By using the “Biomod2” package, and the latest CMIP6 climate data, four single species distribution models and EM were built, and the results were evaluated by operating characteristic (ROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). Based on the relative importance of climate factor analysis the mean diurnal range and precipitation seasonality were useful predictors of habitat suitability for O. niloticus. The response curve analysis indicated that the presence probability of O. niloticus decreased with increasing mean diurnal range and decreasing precipitation seasonality. The suitable distribution ranges for O. niloticus in the studied area were mainly distributed in the northeast of this region. The ensemble model results specified a significant impact of climate change on O. niloticus distribution, so highly suitable areas for this species will be reduced, while areas with low to moderate suitability increase slightly or remain unchanged. Based on the available data, Nile tilapia fulfills all four criteria to be considered as an invasive species: colonization in a new area, direct or indirect impacts of anthropological activity on its distribution range, geographical discontinuity between its native area (Africa) and the Arabian Peninsula (remote dispersal), and finally, its successful breeding in situ without human assistance resulting establishment of this biopollutant. Species distribution modeling provides insights into the factors that can reduce the risks and negative impacts of this biological pollutant on aquatic ecosystems of the southeastern Arabian Peninsula which harbors about 22 recognized fish species in 16 genera, 10 families, seven orders, and a class including 20 natives (seven endemic) species.
Keywords
freshwater ecosystems; pollution; bioinvasion; co-invasion; establishment; ensemble model
Subject
Biology and Life Sciences, Aquatic Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
