Vaihola, S.; Kininmonth, S. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Tuna Fisheries in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Tonga. Diversity2023, 15, 844.
Vaihola, S.; Kininmonth, S. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Tuna Fisheries in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Tonga. Diversity 2023, 15, 844.
Vaihola, S.; Kininmonth, S. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Tuna Fisheries in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Tonga. Diversity2023, 15, 844.
Vaihola, S.; Kininmonth, S. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Tuna Fisheries in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Tonga. Diversity 2023, 15, 844.
Abstract
The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of tuna in Pacific Island Countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones have yet to be investigated rigorously, and so their persistence and abundance in these areas remain uncertain. Here, we estimate optimal fisheries areas for four tuna species; Albacore (Thunnus alalunga), Bigeye (Thunnus obesus), Skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and Yellowfin (Thunnus albacares). We consider different climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, within a set of tuna catch records in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Tonga. Using environmental and CPUE datasets, species distribution modelling estimated and predicted these fisheries areas in the current and future climatic scenarios. Our projections indicate an expansion in area and a shift of productive areas to the southern part of this Exclusive Economic Zone of Tonga. This is an indication that future climatic scenarios might be suitable for the species under study however, changes in trophic layers, ocean currents and ocean chemistry might alter this finding. Information provided here will be relevant in planning future national actions towards proper management of these species.
Keywords
species distribution modeling; tuna species; climate change scenarios; potential suitability habitat; predictor variables; ensemble models
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
