preprints.org > business, economics and management > econometrics and statistics > doi: 10.20944/preprints202305.1627.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 23 May 2023 / Approved: 23 May 2023 / Online: 23 May 2023 (08:40:39 CEST)

The complex adaptive systems (CAS) research study investigates into the theoretical link of a sustained economic growth as a critical pathway to lift people out of poverty and improve their quality of life. The results show a left-skewed global behavior of an economy-driven human development of 189 countries with 20% or 27 countries obtaining low human development; 80% or 162 countries obtaining medium to very high human development of which 21.16% or 39 countries with medium HDI, 53 or 28.04% or 53 countries with high HDI, and 31.22% or 59 countries with very high HDI. Using the Log (GDP) for visual transformation, closer investigation into the scatterplot diagram reveals that there are also bimodal patterns where countries in the high amplitude and low amplitude groups obtained different human development outcomes despite less or more on economic growth variances mirror on the government policy priorities resulting in four differentiating conditions. Very few countries experience virtuous cycles where both growth and human development are successful; few countries with vicious cycles where both are weak; and many countries with lopsided conditions where the economy is strong but human development is weak, or conversely ones where human development is strong but the economy is weak. The global pattern of economy and human development illustrated by an upward sinusoid or sine wave refutes the conventional linear approach. Uniquely and most importantly, the sinusoidal wave illustrates a decreasing amplitude and decreasing periods as countries manifest apparently complex behaviors that emerge as a result of often nonlinear spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of component systems at different levels of organizations and governments leading to an emergence of a behavior characterizing of a complex adaptive system.

Human Development Index; Education Index; Health Index; Standard of Living Index; Gross Domestic Product; Complex Adaptive Systems; Logarithmic Transformation; Sine Wave; Amplitude

Business, Economics and Management, Econometrics and Statistics

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