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Predicting Intensive Care Unit Admission of COVID-19 Patients with Open Data: Analysis of the First Wave in Colombia

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

15 December 2022

Posted:

19 December 2022

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Abstract
Optimizing intensive care resources using predicting modeling is paramount for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we model the admission of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (ICU) in Colombia using openly available data gathered from 18 March 2020 to 14 October 2020. After an intensive preprocessing of the data, we trained four different machine learning models using four different strategies for handling the imbalanced features. Our findings show that our best model (XGBoost) effectively predicts an Area Under the Curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.94, in line with the state-of-the-art results obtained in other predictive models obtained with medical data.
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Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

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