Goeury, C.; Bacchi, V.; Zaoui, F.; Bacchi, S.; Pavan, S.; El kadi Abderrezzak, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water2022, 14, 3815.
Goeury, C.; Bacchi, V.; Zaoui, F.; Bacchi, S.; Pavan, S.; El kadi Abderrezzak, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water 2022, 14, 3815.
Goeury, C.; Bacchi, V.; Zaoui, F.; Bacchi, S.; Pavan, S.; El kadi Abderrezzak, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water2022, 14, 3815.
Goeury, C.; Bacchi, V.; Zaoui, F.; Bacchi, S.; Pavan, S.; El kadi Abderrezzak, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Flood Hazard Due to Levee Breaching. Water 2022, 14, 3815.
Abstract
Water resource management and flood forecasting are crucial societal and financial stakes requiring reliable predictions of flow parameters (depth, velocity), the accuracy of which is often limited by uncertainties in hydrodynamic numerical models. In this study, we assess the effect of two uncertainty sources, namely breach characteristics induced by overtopping and the roughness coefficient, on water elevations and inundation extent. A two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic solver was applied in a Monte Carlo integration framework to a reach of the Loire river (France) including about 300 physical parameters. Inundation hazard maps for different flood scenarios allowed highlighting the impact of the breach development chronology. A special attention was paid to proposing a relevant sensitivity analysis to exam the factors influencing the depth and extent of flooding. The spatial analysis of vulnerability area induced by a levee breach width exhibits that, with increasing the flood discharge, the rise of the parameter influence is accompanied by a more localized spatial effect. This argues for a local analysis to allow a clear understanding of the flood hazard. The physical interpretation, highlighted by a global sensitivity analysis, showed precisely the dependence of the flood simulation on the main factors studied, i.e. the roughness coefficients and the characteristics of the breaches.
Keywords
flood hazard; dike breach; Monte Carlo framework; Global Sensitivity Analysis
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Probability and Statistics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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