Preprint Technical Note Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Forecasting Energy Consumption Time Series Using Recurrent Neural Network in Tensorflow

Version 1 : Received: 26 September 2022 / Approved: 27 September 2022 / Online: 27 September 2022 (02:44:29 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Yazdan, M.M.S.; Saki, S.; Kumar, R. Untangling Energy Consumption Dynamics with Renewable Energy Using Recurrent Neural Network. Analytics 2023, 2, 132-145. Yazdan, M.M.S.; Saki, S.; Kumar, R. Untangling Energy Consumption Dynamics with Renewable Energy Using Recurrent Neural Network. Analytics 2023, 2, 132-145.

Abstract

The environmental issues we are currently facing require long-term prospective efforts for sustainable growth. Renewable energy sources seem to be one of the most practical and efficient alternatives in this regard. Understanding a nation's pattern of energy use and renewable energy production is crucial for developing strategic plans. No previous study has been performed to explore the dynamics of power consumption with the change in renewable energy production on a country-wide scale. In contrast, a number of deep learning algorithms demonstrated acceptable performance while handling sequential data in the era of data-driven predictions. In this study, we developed a scheme to investigate and predict total power consumption and renewable energy production time series for eleven years of data using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The dynamics of the interaction between the total annual power consumption and renewable energy production are investigated through extensive Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and a feature engineering framework. The performance of the model is found satisfactory through the comparison of the predicted data with the observed data, visualization of the distribution of the errors and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 0.084. Higher performance is achieved through the increase in the number of epochs and hyperparameter tuning. The proposed framework can be used and transferred to investigate the trend of renewable energy production and power consumption and predict the future scenarios for different communities. Incorporation of the cloud-based platform into the proposed pipeline may lead to real-time forecasting.

Keywords

Recurrent Neural Network; Renewable Energy; Power consumption; Open Power System Data; Multivariate Exploratory; Time series forecasting

Subject

Engineering, Energy and Fuel Technology

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