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A New Look at Physico-Chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere?
Kennedy, I.R.; Runcie, J.W.; Zhang, S.; Ritchie, R.J. A New Look at Physico-Chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere? Thermo2022, 2, 401-434.
Kennedy, I.R.; Runcie, J.W.; Zhang, S.; Ritchie, R.J. A New Look at Physico-Chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere? Thermo 2022, 2, 401-434.
Kennedy, I.R.; Runcie, J.W.; Zhang, S.; Ritchie, R.J. A New Look at Physico-Chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere? Thermo2022, 2, 401-434.
Kennedy, I.R.; Runcie, J.W.; Zhang, S.; Ritchie, R.J. A New Look at Physico-Chemical Causes of Changing Climate: Is the Seasonal Variation in Seawater Temperature a Significant Factor in Establishing the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s Atmosphere? Thermo 2022, 2, 401-434.
Abstract
Seasonal oscillations in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere stronger in northern latitudes are assumed to show that terrestrial photosynthesis exceeds respiration in summer reducing the pCO2, but increasing in winter when respiration exceeds photosynthesis. We disagree, proposing that variations in the temperature of the surface mixing zone of seawater also regulate the atmospheric pCO2, thermodynamically. We show that carbonate (CO32-) concentrations will therefore increase in summer with CaCO3 (calcite or aragonite) becoming less soluble, so calcium and carbonate ions are predicted to aggregate more while CO2 concentration falls in warmer seawater, thermodynamically favoring lower atmospheric pCO2. In winter, these physical processes are reversed, redissolving suspended calcite thus increasing carbonate alkalinity; carbonate concentration lessens as bicarbonate and soluble CO2 increase, raising the pCO2 in air. Our numerical computation shows that thermal fluctuations in equilibria favor absorption from air of more than one mole of CO2 per square meter in summer, coinciding with calcite formation maximizing in warmer water, potentially augmenting limestone reefs if there is a trend for increasing temperature . Another assumption we challenge is that upwelling from deeper water is the sole cause of increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity in surface waters, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Instead, calcite dissolution is favored as water temperature falls near the surface. It is well established that the seasonal summer decline in atmospheric CO2 coincides in fertile seawater with higher rates of biotic calcification and acidity, allowing increased CO2 capture by photosynthesis. However, its reversal in winter is proposed to be also a result of the cyclic dissolution of calcite as temperature falls, facilitated by biogenic respiration now exceeding photosynthesis; this can mutually provide the CO2 needed to convert carbonate ion alkalinity from calcite dissolution with bicarbonate increasing. Physical reasons why this oscillation is more obvious in the northern hemisphere include greater seasonal variations in water temperature (ca. 7.1 oC) being almost twice that in the cooler southern hemisphere (ca. 4.7 oC) and the greater depth of the surface mixing zone of seawater in the southern oceans. Evidence from 13CO2 fluxes between surface seawater and air is also assessed to test this hypothesis but questions remain regarding the regional rates of inorganic precipitation and dissolution of CaCO3 in the mixing zone. In summary, rapid biogenic calcification is favored by summer photosynthesis, but slower abiogenic calcification is more likely in warmer water.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
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