Urban Sprawl and Its Influence on Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Bagdad City from 1985 to 2021

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change and urban growth have a significant influence on local climate of cities. From 1985 to 2021 the population of Baghdad increased by 103%. Therefore, the risen question is how this expansion influences the temperature of the city. The study aims to identify urban growth of Baghdad, investigate its influence on variation of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and identify the main factors that control the surface temperature of the city. Three Landsat images from 1985 to 2021, in addition to sixteen potential factors, were used in the study. Our findings suggest that during the study period, vegetated areas declined by 39% while built-up class increased by 139%. Bare soil recorded the highest surface temperature. The study found that surface temperature has a strong inverse relationship with vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): r = -0.62, p < 0.001) and moisture (Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI): r = -0.65, p < 0.001). Therefore, increasing vegetation and water body lead to decrease temperature of the city. Our findings help policymakers to deal with climatic issues rising from urban growth of the city.