Higher Education Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment Trends in Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis

The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in undergraduate enrollment, graduation, and employment in Ethiopia. It looked at data from the past 20 years of enrollment and graduation, as well as the 15 years of unemployment trends. For enrollment, we used the ARIMA(0,1,0) model, for graduation, the Holt-Winter model, and unemployment, the Simple model. Results showed that enrollment rates increased dramatically, but graduation rates remained constant. Besides, enrollment is expected to continue rising, while graduation rates are expected to fall. On the other hand, between 1999 and 2018, the overall unemployment trend declined. Yet, between 2009 and 2018 the unemployment trends stayed stable. According to the findings, for the next ten years, higher education enrollment and graduation will continue. Nevertheless, it is shown the diminishing demand for jobs in the labor market. As part of improving the existing realities of higher education, the study suggests reconsidering job-driven policy formulation, strengthening higher education-labor market alignment, controlling higher education expansion, and sustaining the development qualification systems.