Yimer, B.M.; Demissie, M.M.; Herut, A.H.; Bareke, M.L.; Agezew, B.H.; Dedho, N.H.; Lebeta, M.F. Higher Education Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment Trends in Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis. Preprints2022, 2022060093. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202206.0093.v1
APA Style
Yimer, B.M., Demissie, M.M., Herut, A.H., Bareke, M.L., Agezew, B.H., Dedho, N.H., & Lebeta, M.F. (2022). Higher Education Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment Trends in Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202206.0093.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Yimer, B.M., Negash Haile Dedho and Mulugeta Fufa Lebeta. 2022 "Higher Education Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment Trends in Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202206.0093.v1
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in undergraduate enrollment, graduation, and employment in Ethiopia. It looked at data from the past 20 years of enrollment and graduation, as well as the 15 years of unemployment trends. For enrollment, we used the ARIMA(0,1,0) model, for graduation, the Holt-Winter model, and unemployment, the Simple model. Results showed that enrollment rates increased dramatically, but graduation rates remained constant. Besides, enrollment is expected to continue rising, while graduation rates are expected to fall. On the other hand, between 1999 and 2018, the overall unemployment trend declined. Yet, between 2009 and 2018 the unemployment trends stayed stable. According to the findings, for the next ten years, higher education enrollment and graduation will continue. Nevertheless, it is shown the diminishing demand for jobs in the labor market. As part of improving the existing realities of higher education, the study suggests reconsidering job-driven policy formulation, strengthening higher education-labor market alignment, controlling higher education expansion, and sustaining the development qualification systems.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment:
This preprint aims to forecast enrollment, graduation, and unemployment trends in Ethiopia's higher education system. While the topic is interesting and potentially important, I have substantial concerns about the paper in its current form. The background and literature review focus too heavily on broad theoretical concepts like globalization without including enough localized context and prior studies on Ethiopian higher education and labor markets. The data sources are vague and the timeline is unclear. Using three mismatched models (ARIMA, Holt-Winters, Simple) on different variables seems an odd approach without justification. My biggest issue is with the graduation rate analysis - it looks at total graduates rather than rates, which is needed to genuinely assess trends over time. The results overall seem simplistic with limited statistical rigor (thoroughness) or model accuracy measures. Some interpretations make questionable, unsupported leaps not clearly tied to the data presented. And limitations around the methodology, data, and scope are missing. Ultimately, the conclusions reach too far beyond what this exploratory data analysis can support. For a study with 7 listed authors, I would expect to see much stronger research methods and critical analysis demonstrated. I am sorry to write this, but the truth is that the paper does not meet the scientific standards I look for in a forecasting study suitable for publication.
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Commenter:
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.