Higher Education Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment Trends in Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis

Comment: This preprint aims to forecast enrollment, graduation, and unemployment trends in Ethiopia's higher education system. While the topic is interesting and potentially important, I have substantial concerns about the paper in its current form. The background and literature review focus too heavily on broad theoretical concepts like globalization without including enough localized context and prior studies on Ethiopian higher education and labor markets. The data sources are vague and the timeline is unclear. Using three mismatched models (ARIMA, Holt-Winters, Simple) on different variables seems an odd approach without justification. My biggest issue is with the graduation rate analysis - it looks at total graduates rather than rates, which is needed to genuinely assess trends over time. The results overall seem simplistic with limited statistical rigor (thoroughness) or model accuracy measures. Some interpretations make questionable, unsupported leaps not clearly tied to the data presented. And limitations around the methodology, data, and scope are missing. Ultimately, the conclusions reach too far beyond what this exploratory data analysis can support. For a study with 7 listed authors, I would expect to see much stronger research methods and critical analysis demonstrated. I am sorry to write this, but the truth is that the paper does not meet the scientific standards I look for in a forecasting study suitable for publication.