Preprint Hypothesis Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

How Risky if China Moves Away from Its Zero-COVID Policy?

Version 1 : Received: 20 April 2022 / Approved: 20 April 2022 / Online: 20 April 2022 (08:24:20 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 23 April 2022 / Approved: 25 April 2022 / Online: 25 April 2022 (03:30:28 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 5 May 2022 / Approved: 6 May 2022 / Online: 6 May 2022 (03:38:30 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Journal reference: Journal of Medical Virology 2022, 94
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27949


We found four striking differences in the COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) or the ratio of symptomatic COVID-19 cases versus asymptomatic infections. These striking differences all suggest that the risk for China to move away from its zero-COVID policy shall depend on China’s control measures. The CFR of COVID-19 in China can remain less than one tenth of influenza, namely that COVID-19 can be “tiny influenza” in China, if COVID-19 cases shall be well isolated in well disinfected environments (e.g., staying at well-disinfected home) with good maintenance treatment, to minimize their co-infections and maintain their body functions. Otherwise, the CFR of COVID-19 in China can be several times higher than influenza, namely that COVID-19 can be “giant influenza” in China. This analysis is also important to mitigate COVID-19 worldwide.


COVID-19; case fatality rate; risk; co-infection; control measures


MEDICINE & PHARMACOLOGY, General Medical Research

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0

Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.

We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.