Preprint Hypothesis Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

How Risky if China Moves Away from Its Zero-COVID Policy?

Ji-Ming Chen
* ORCID logo ,
Guo-Hui Li
,
Yu-Fei Ji
,
Ming-Hui Sun
,
Huan-Yu Gong
,
Rui-Xu Chen
,
Ji-Wang Chen
*
Version 1 : Received: 20 April 2022 / Approved: 20 April 2022 / Online: 20 April 2022 (08:24:20 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 23 April 2022 / Approved: 25 April 2022 / Online: 25 April 2022 (03:30:28 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 5 May 2022 / Approved: 6 May 2022 / Online: 6 May 2022 (03:38:30 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Chen, J.; Li, G.; Ji, Y.; Sun, M.; Gong, H.; Chen, R.; Chen, J. A Highly Powerful Nonspecific Strategy to Reduce COVID‐19 Deaths. Journal of Medical Virology, 2022, 94, 5051–5055. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27949. Chen, J.; Li, G.; Ji, Y.; Sun, M.; Gong, H.; Chen, R.; Chen, J. A Highly Powerful Nonspecific Strategy to Reduce COVID‐19 Deaths. Journal of Medical Virology, 2022, 94, 5051–5055. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27949.

Abstract

We found four striking differences in the COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) or the ratio of symptomatic COVID-19 cases versus asymptomatic infections. These striking differences all suggest that the risk for China to move away from its zero-COVID policy shall depend on China’s control measures. The CFR of COVID-19 in China can remain less than one tenth of influenza, namely that COVID-19 can be “tiny influenza” in China, if COVID-19 cases shall be well isolated in well disinfected environments (e.g., staying at well-disinfected home) with good maintenance treatment, to minimize their co-infections and maintain their body functions. Otherwise, the CFR of COVID-19 in China can be several times higher than influenza, namely that COVID-19 can be “giant influenza” in China. This analysis is also important to mitigate COVID-19 worldwide.

Keywords

COVID-19; case fatality rate; risk; co-infection; control measures

Subject

Public Health and Healthcare, Health Policy and Services

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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