A Bayesian Model for Annual Crop Phenological Parameter Estimation Using Optical High Resolution Image Time Series

Vegetation status assessment is crucial for agricultural monitoring and management. Vegetation indices derived from high resolution image time series can be used to derive key phenological parameters for annual crops. In this work, we propose a procedure for the estimation of these parameters and their associated uncertainties. The approach uses Bayesian inference through Markov Chain Monte Carlo in order to obtain the full joint posterior distribution of the phenological parameters given the satellite observations. The proposed algorithm is quantitatively validated on synthetic data. Its use on real data is presented together with an application to real-time within season estimation allowing for phenology forecasting.