PreprintArticleVersion 3Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models
Version 1
: Received: 29 June 2021 / Approved: 1 July 2021 / Online: 1 July 2021 (10:33:42 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 1 July 2021 / Approved: 2 July 2021 / Online: 2 July 2021 (10:26:06 CEST)
Version 3
: Received: 23 August 2022 / Approved: 24 August 2022 / Online: 24 August 2022 (03:49:41 CEST)
How to cite:
Schaffernicht, M.F.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.A.; Castillo, R.D. A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models. Preprints2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v3
Schaffernicht, M.F.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.A.; Castillo, R.D. A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models. Preprints 2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v3
Schaffernicht, M.F.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C.A.; Castillo, R.D. A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models. Preprints2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v3
APA Style
Schaffernicht, M.F., López-Astorga, M., Rojas-Barahona, C.A., & Castillo, R.D. (2022). A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v3
Chicago/Turabian Style
Schaffernicht, M.F., Cristian A. Rojas-Barahona and Ramón D. Castillo. 2022 "A Conceptual Framework for Constructing Decision Policies by Processing the Possibilities in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems with the Cognitive Theory of Mental Models" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v3
Abstract
This article is a theoretical contribution to mental model research, which currently has different threads. Whereas some researchers focus on the perceived causal structure, others also include decision policies and decisions. We focus on the link between recognized causal structure (“mental models of dynamic systems”) and policies, proposing Johnson-Laird’s theory of mental models as the link. The resulting framework hypothesizes two types of systematic mental model errors: (1) misrepresentation of the system’s structure and (2) failure to deploy relevant mental models of possibilities. Examination of three experiments through this lens reveals errors of both types. Therefore, we propose that the cognitive theory of mental models opens a path to better understand how people construct their decision policies and develop interventions to reduce such mental model errors. The article closes by raising several questions for empirical studies of the reasoning process leading from mental models of dynamic systems to decision policies.
Keywords
Mental Models; Dynamic Decision Making; Systems Thinking; Learning
Subject
Social Sciences, Decision Sciences
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received:
24 August 2022
Commenter:
Martin Schaffernicht
Commenter's Conflict of Interests:
Author
Comment:
The original manuscript was not sufficiently clear regarding the essential contribution and it was too long.This revised manuscript focuses exclusively on the theoretical framework with the cognitive theory of mental models of possibilities as the link from mental models of dynamic systems to decision policies. The original decision problem with its stylized policies and the simulation model have been removed and replaced by three well-known (previously published) decision problems, and we demonstrate the application of the framework and the identification of two types of predictable mental model errors. We also changed to title and adjusted the abstract.The revised manuscript also is much shorter.
Commenter: Martin Schaffernicht
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author