Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task

Version 1 : Received: 29 June 2021 / Approved: 1 July 2021 / Online: 1 July 2021 (10:33:42 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 1 July 2021 / Approved: 2 July 2021 / Online: 2 July 2021 (10:26:06 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 23 August 2022 / Approved: 24 August 2022 / Online: 24 August 2022 (03:49:41 CEST)

How to cite: Schaffernicht, M. F.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C. A.; Castillo, R. D. Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints 2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v2 Schaffernicht, M. F.; López-Astorga, M.; Rojas-Barahona, C. A.; Castillo, R. D. Beyond Misperception–Two Types of Mental Model Errors in a Dynamic Decision Task. Preprints 2021, 2021070004. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202107.0004.v2

Abstract

This article contributes to research on mental models and how they underpin decision policies. It proposes a framework for the joint use of mental models of dynamic systems and the theory of mental models initiated by Johnson–Laird and defines two types of errors: (1) misrepresentation of the system’s structure, and (2) failure to deploy relevant mental models of possibilities. We use a dynamic decision task based on Moxnes’ “reindeer experiment” to formulate three intuitive policies, their underlying mental models, and the reasoning, and evaluate the policies under varying initial conditions. Each of the policies generates problematic behaviors like dependance on initial conditions, underperformance because of flawed goal setting and oscillation due to leaving the delay in a feedback loop out of account. We identify errors of both types in the mental models and relate them to the behavioral problems. Limitations and questions for further research conclude the paper.

Keywords

Mental Models; Dynamic Decision Making; Systems Thinking; Learning;

Subject

Business, Economics and Management, Accounting and Taxation

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 2 July 2021
Commenter: Martin Schaffernicht
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: Two minor corrections:
a) The affiliation of Miguel López-Astorga was corrected to Instituto de Estudios Humanísticos “Juan Ignacio Molina”.
b) An acknoledgement to the research program where we carried out the research was inserted: The research reported here was conducted as part of the Associative translational research program on cognitive, neural and relational processes in adaptive and psychopathological behavior “PIA Ciencas Cognitivas” of the Universidad de Talca.
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