Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration

Margarita Lampo
* ORCID logo ,
Juan Vicente Hernández-Villena
ORCID logo ,
Jaime Cascante
,
María Fernanda Vicenti-González
,
David A. Forero-Peña
ORCID logo ,
Maikell J. Segovia
,
Katie Hampson
ORCID logo ,
Julio Castro
,
Maria Eugenia Grillet
Version 1 : Received: 30 May 2021 / Approved: 1 June 2021 / Online: 1 June 2021 (15:18:05 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Lampo, M.; Hernández-Villena, J.V.; Cascante, J.; Vincenti-González, M.F.; Forero-Peña, D.A.; Segovia, M.J.; Hampson, K.; Castro, J.; Grillet, M.E. Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration. Vaccines 2021, 9, 719. Lampo, M.; Hernández-Villena, J.V.; Cascante, J.; Vincenti-González, M.F.; Forero-Peña, D.A.; Segovia, M.J.; Hampson, K.; Castro, J.; Grillet, M.E. Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration. Vaccines 2021, 9, 719.

Abstract

Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability. Using an SEI metapopulation model, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.

Keywords

SEI models; metapoplations; Venezuela; SARS-CoV-2; drivers of transmission; spatial incidence.

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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