Version 1
: Received: 13 April 2021 / Approved: 14 April 2021 / Online: 14 April 2021 (16:06:14 CEST)
How to cite:
Chegnizadeh, A.; Bahmani, M.J.; Rabieifar3, H.; Ebrahimi, H. Analysis and Forecasting the Precipitation and Temperature in the Dez Catchment Area. Preprints2021, 2021040389. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
Chegnizadeh, A.; Bahmani, M.J.; Rabieifar3, H.; Ebrahimi, H. Analysis and Forecasting the Precipitation and Temperature in the Dez Catchment Area. Preprints 2021, 2021040389. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
Chegnizadeh, A.; Bahmani, M.J.; Rabieifar3, H.; Ebrahimi, H. Analysis and Forecasting the Precipitation and Temperature in the Dez Catchment Area. Preprints2021, 2021040389. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
APA Style
Chegnizadeh, A., Bahmani, M.J., Rabieifar3, H., & Ebrahimi, H. (2021). Analysis and Forecasting the Precipitation and Temperature in the Dez Catchment Area. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Chegnizadeh, A., Hamidreza Rabieifar3 and Hossein Ebrahimi. 2021 "Analysis and Forecasting the Precipitation and Temperature in the Dez Catchment Area" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
Abstract
In this study, we have first studied the trend in meteorological data from the Harmaleh, Vanai and Farsesh stations in the 50-year period in the Dez catchment area. The meteorological data will be then forecasted using SWAT and Mann-Kendall. Forecasting the results in the Mann-Kendall and SWAT model has been done using the code written in MATLAB software and RCP (4.5, 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Studying the results of the trend in the data of meteorological stations in this catchment area indicated that these two parametric and non-parametric methods have been used to determine trends in meteorological data. The results of the parametric method are positive in all meteorological parameters. Non-parametric method over a period of 50 years shows the presence of trends in the data. The comparison on the forecasting results at maximum temperature suggested that during summer, we will see an increase in temperature compared to the ground state in all three forecasts. The results of the minimum temperature forecast show a decrease in the minimum increase during the winter and the precipitation forecast indicates that at the end of autumn (Nov) precipitation decreased by 20 mm in the Mann-Kendall and 4.5 RCP while RCP8.5 suggests the increase in precipitation compared to the ground state. Studying the runoff forecast results using SWOT show that at the end of winter (Feb) and almost all spring (Mar, Apr) a decrease of about 40%, 15% and 14% will be seen, respectively
Keywords
Trends in meteorological data; SWAT, RCP; Mann-Kendall forecast
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
