Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann

doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0178.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 6 February 2021 / Approved: 8 February 2021 / Online: 8 February 2021 (10:33:43 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 15 March 2021 / Approved: 16 March 2021 / Online: 16 March 2021 (10:15:53 CET)

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

non-pharmaceutical intervention; epidemic model; compliance; reproduction number; COVID-19

Computer Science and Mathematics, Algebra and Number Theory

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Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

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