Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction (Rt) Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia

Version 1 : Received: 13 January 2021 / Approved: 14 January 2021 / Online: 14 January 2021 (09:41:02 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Musa, K.I.; Arifin, W.N.; Mohd, M.H.; Jamiluddin, M.S.; Ahmad, N.A.; Chen, X.W.; Hanis, T.M.; Bulgiba, A. Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3273. Musa, K.I.; Arifin, W.N.; Mohd, M.H.; Jamiluddin, M.S.; Ahmad, N.A.; Chen, X.W.; Hanis, T.M.; Bulgiba, A. Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3273.

Journal reference: Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3273
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18063273

Abstract

To quantify the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) for Malaysia using the COVID-19 incidence data., we used data the from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. Data was split into four intervals: a) Interval 1: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 1, b) Interval 2: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 2, c) Interval 3: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 3 and d) Interval 4: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 4. We estimated the Rt using the EpiEstim package. The means for Rt at Day 1, Day 5 and Day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 to 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. However, Rt increased in MCO 3 before stabilized around 0.8 in MCO 4. MCO 1 and MCO 2 which were stricter coincide with the gradual reduction of Rt. However, the more relaxed MCO 3 and MCO 4 correspond to a slight increase in the Rt before it stabilized.

Keywords

Reproduction number; COVID-19; movement control order; epidemic curve

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