Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Communicating Disaster Risk in the Context of Climate Change in Tanzania: Are the Most Vulnerable Onboard?

Version 1 : Received: 12 December 2020 / Approved: 14 December 2020 / Online: 14 December 2020 (13:32:46 CET)

How to cite: Armah, F. Communicating Disaster Risk in the Context of Climate Change in Tanzania: Are the Most Vulnerable Onboard? . Preprints 2020, 2020120339 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0339.v1). Armah, F. Communicating Disaster Risk in the Context of Climate Change in Tanzania: Are the Most Vulnerable Onboard? . Preprints 2020, 2020120339 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0339.v1).

Abstract

Climate information can help vulnerable populations anticipate disasters before they happen and enable communities prepare for and cope with them. A complementary log-log regression model based on quantitative study in coastal communities in Tanzania was used to assess the likelihood of the rural poor, rural non poor, urban poor, and urban non poor to receive early warning information about flood, drought and other disasters. Individuals in the urban poor category were 35% less likely to receive early warning information about flood, drought and other disasters whereas urban non-poor residents were 49% more likely to receive same. This disadvantage to the urban poor persists even when adaptive capacity, geographical location and socio-environmental factors are accounted. Nuclear households consisting of a male head and female partner who have children or not had higher likelihood of receiving early warning information on flood, drought and other disasters (OR = 1.47, p < 0.001) compared with their counterparts in female-centred households (no husband or male partner). Residents with tertiary education were more likely (OR = 1.91, p < 0.001) to report that they had received early warning information about flood, drought and other disasters compared with their counterparts without any formal education. This zero-order relationship was completed mediated by geographical location and socio-environmental factors in the multivariate model. The results underline the key role access to climate- and disaster-related information play in enhancing adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards, as well as the importance of targeting the most vulnerable households in policy interventions to improve resilience in the face of a changing climate.

Subject Areas

climate change; natural hazard; urban poverty; early warning; information; Tanzania

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