Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Modelling the Population Health Impacts of Heated Tobacco Products in Japan

Version 1 : Received: 7 December 2020 / Approved: 8 December 2020 / Online: 8 December 2020 (12:44:24 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Journal reference: Tobacco Regulatory Science 2021
DOI: 10.18001/TRS.7.3.7


Few data are available on the health impact of tobacco heating products (THPs) at the population level. We used systems dynamics modelling to estimate effects in the established THP market in Japan. We projected effects of THP use in overall mortality up to 2100 and compare those projections against a baseline scenario based on smoking rates pre-THP launch, i.e., smoking only. The model was informed using data from publicly available sources and the literature, including population size, yearly deaths and smoking prevalence with initialisation year (2004) and, births and migration from 2004 to 2065. Transitions between products were estimated from cross-sectional population surveys in Japan. Potential life-years saved with the introduction of THPs was 13 million by 2100 compared with smoking only. In worst-case scenario, population health gains would be seen with THPs risk 10–50% lower risk than smoking. Assuming equal risk for dual use and smoking, THP risk would need to be at least 10% lower than smoking to achieve a population health benefit by 2100. In credible scenarios, substantial population health gains will follow the introduction of THPs in Japan in a relatively short time frame.


Tobacco harm reduction; tobacco heating products; THP; HTP; population health; Japan projections; nicotine; system dynamics



Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0

Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.