Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Computational Model to Inform Effective Control Interventions against Yersinia enterocolitica Coinfection

Version 1 : Received: 16 October 2020 / Approved: 19 October 2020 / Online: 19 October 2020 (14:40:09 CEST)

How to cite: Mostolizadeh, R.; Dräger, A. A Computational Model to Inform Effective Control Interventions against Yersinia enterocolitica Coinfection. Preprints 2020, 2020100386 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0386.v1). Mostolizadeh, R.; Dräger, A. A Computational Model to Inform Effective Control Interventions against Yersinia enterocolitica Coinfection. Preprints 2020, 2020100386 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0386.v1).

Abstract

The complex interplay among pathogens, host factors, and the integrity and composition of the endogenous microbiome determine the course and outcome of gastrointestinal infections. The model organism Yersinia entercolitica (Ye) is one of the five top frequent causes of bacterial gastroenteritis based on the Epidemiological Bulletin of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) published on September 10, 2020. A fundamental challenge in predicting the course of an infection is to understand whether co-infection with two Yersinia strains differing only in their capacity to resist killing by the host immune system may decrease the overall virulence by competitive exclusion or increase it by acting cooperatively. Herein, we study the primary interactions among Ye, the host immune system and the microbiota, and their influence on Yersinia population dynamics. The employed model considers two host compartments, the intestinal mucosa and lumen, commensal bacteria, the co-existence of wild-type and mutant Yersinia strains, as well the host immune responses. We determine four possible equilibria: the disease-free, wild-type-free, mutant-free, and co-existence of wild-type and mutant equilibrium. We also calculate the reproduction number for each strain as a threshold parameter to determine if the population may either be eradicated or persist within the host. We conclude that the infection should disappear if the reproduction numbers for each strain fall below one, and the commensal bacteria’s growth rate exceeds the pathogens’ growth rates. These findings will help inform public health control strategies. The supplement includes MATLAB source script, Maple workbook, and figures.

Subject Areas

reproduction number; disease-free equilibrium; co-existence equilibrium; Yersinia; gastroenteritis

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.