Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

Version 1 : Received: 25 September 2020 / Approved: 26 September 2020 / Online: 26 September 2020 (08:26:24 CEST)

How to cite: Chakilu, G.G.; Sandor, S.; Zoltan, T. Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario. Preprints 2020, 2020090621 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0621.v1). Chakilu, G.G.; Sandor, S.; Zoltan, T. Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario. Preprints 2020, 2020090621 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0621.v1).

Abstract

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

Subject Areas

climate change; stream flow; SWAT; Gumara watershed; Blue Nile

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