Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Impact of Border Enforcement Measures, Medical Resources, and Public Counter-Compliancy on the Global Spread of the Novel Covid-19: Two-Body Export-Importation Epidemic Dynamics

Version 1 : Received: 13 May 2020 / Approved: 14 May 2020 / Online: 14 May 2020 (12:19:29 CEST)

How to cite: Kabir, K.M.A.; Chowdhury, A.; Tanimoto, J. Impact of Border Enforcement Measures, Medical Resources, and Public Counter-Compliancy on the Global Spread of the Novel Covid-19: Two-Body Export-Importation Epidemic Dynamics . Preprints 2020, 2020050242 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0242.v1). Kabir, K.M.A.; Chowdhury, A.; Tanimoto, J. Impact of Border Enforcement Measures, Medical Resources, and Public Counter-Compliancy on the Global Spread of the Novel Covid-19: Two-Body Export-Importation Epidemic Dynamics . Preprints 2020, 2020050242 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0242.v1).

Abstract

In the wake of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-19, the world has undergone a critical situation in which grave threats to global public health emerged. Among human populations across the planet, travel restraints, border enforcement measures, quarantine, and isolation provisions were implemented in an attempt to control and limit the spread of the contagion. Decisions on how to implement and enforce various control policies should be determined based on available real-world evidence and theoretical prediction. In this study, we propose a novel exportation- importation epidemic model associated with the quarantine and hospitalized-isolation policies by considering the two-body system: a source country of a contagious disease and a neighboring country that is initially disease-free. The model is first applied to the original COVID-19 data in China, Italy, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) and observed through consistent fitting results with equivalent goodness-of-fit. Then, the data are estimated per the fitting parameters. Driven by these parametric settings and considering the normalized population, the numerical analysis, and epidemiological exploration, this work further elucidates the substantial impact of quarantine policies, healthcare facilities, and the public counter-compliance effect.

Subject Areas

SARS-CoV-19; importation-exportation; healthcare facilities; public counter-compliancy

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.