Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Understanding the Spreading Patterns of COVID-19 in UK and Its Impact on Exit Strategies

Version 1 : Received: 5 May 2020 / Approved: 7 May 2020 / Online: 7 May 2020 (09:40:34 CEST)

How to cite: Nekovee, M. Understanding the Spreading Patterns of COVID-19 in UK and Its Impact on Exit Strategies. Preprints 2020, 2020050115 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0115.v1). Nekovee, M. Understanding the Spreading Patterns of COVID-19 in UK and Its Impact on Exit Strategies. Preprints 2020, 2020050115 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0115.v1).

Abstract

Prior to lockdown the spread of COVID-19 in UK is found to be exponential, with an exponent α=0.207 In case of COVID-19 this spreading patterns is quantitatively better described with mobility-driven SIR-SEIR model [2] rather than the homogenous mixing models Lockdown has dramatically slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in UK, and even more significantly has changed the growth in the total number of infected from exponential to quadratic. This significant change is due a transition from a mobility-driven epidemic spreading to a spatial epidemic which is dominated by slow growth of spatially isolated clusters of infected population. Our results strongly indicated that, to avoid a return to exponential growth of COVID-19 (also known as “second wave”) mobility restrictions should not be prematurely lifted. Instead mobility should be kept restricted while new measures, such as wearing mask and contact tracing, get implemented in order to allow a safe exit from lockdown.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Mobility; Spatial Epidemics; Exit Strategy

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