Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

When COVID-19 Will Decline in India? Prediction by Combination of Recovery and Case Load Rate

Version 1 : Received: 1 May 2020 / Approved: 4 May 2020 / Online: 4 May 2020 (02:17:29 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Journal reference: Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health 2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.06.004

Abstract

Background: World Health Organization (WHO) declared that COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. There is sudden need of statistical modeling due to onset of COVID-19 pandemic across the world. But health planning and policy requirements the estimates of disease problem form clinical data. Objective: To predict recovery rate, cases load rate on the basis of cumulative confirmed Novel Corona virus (NCV) cases, recovered cases and deaths form COVID-19 in India. Methods: The reported COVID-19 cases in the country were obtained from website (https://datahub.io/core/covid-19#resource-covid-19_zip/). The cumulative NCV confirmed cases; recovery cases and deaths were used for estimating recovery rate, cases load rate and death rate till date 24 April 2020. Results: A total of 24530 NCV confirmed cases were reported nationwide in India on 24 April 2020. It is found that the recovery rate increased 22% and case load rate decreased 74%. Death rate is found to be very low 3%. The difference of cases load rate and recovery rate (delta) coincide at 50 % then NCV cases expected would be declined. Conclusion: The epidemic in the country was mainly caused by the importation of India. Lockdown as restricting the migration of population and decided to quarantine of population may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic in India. This study predicts that by 20 May 2020, the cases load rate lesser than recovery rate there after COVID-19 patients would be started to reducing.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; recovery rate; case load rate; India

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